Search results for " duration dependence"

showing 3 items of 3 documents

The Legacy and the Tyranny of Time: Exit and Re-Entry of Sovereigns to International Capital Markets

2018

We use a novel continuous-time Weibull model (without and) with a change-point in the duration dependence parameter to investigate the duration of the exit and re-entry of sovereigns to international capital markets. Relying on annual data for a large panel of countries over the period 1970-2011, we find that, as the reputation of debtor countries as good (bad) borrowers solidifies over time, those episodes are more likely to end - i.e. the "legacy of time". Debtor countries can take advantage of the "benefit of doubt" of creditors during short exit spells. However, when exits are long and the reputation as a bad borrower emerges, no more "complacency" makes it more difficult for them to bo…

Economics and EconometricsGovernment050208 financeHaircutCreditormedia_common.quotation_subject05 social sciencesSettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaDuration dependenceDebtorMonetary economicsInternational capital marketMarket economyAccounting0502 economics and businessEconomicsinternational capital markets re-entry and exit continuous-time Weibull model duration dependence change-point.050207 economicsDuration (project management)FinanceReputationmedia_commonJournal of Money, Credit and Banking
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On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases

2021

Abstract Using long-term sovereign ratings data for a panel of 130 countries over the last three decades, we investigate the duration and determinants of sovereign rating phases through the lens of discrete-time Weibull models. We find that the likelihood of the end of the ‘speculative-grade’ phase increases as time goes by (i.e. there is positive duration dependence), but the ‘investment-grade’ phase is not duration dependent. Thus, for sovereigns rated as speculative, the build-up of reputation as good borrowers is a gradual process, whereas the reputation of investment-grade sovereigns solidifies and remains unchanged as time passes. However, the length of both phases significantly depen…

InflationOrganizational Behavior and Human Resource ManagementEconomics and Econometrics050208 financemedia_common.quotation_subjectCorporate governanceDuration analysis Duration dependence Sovereign ratings Investment-grade Speculative-grade Economic environment Fiscal position Quality of governance05 social sciencesDuration dependenceSettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaMonetary economicsInvestment (macroeconomics)Phase (combat)Sovereignty0502 economics and business8. Economic growthEconomics050207 economicsDuration (project management)media_commonReputation
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Booms, Busts and normal times in the housing market

2015

We assess the existence of duration dependence in the likelihood of an end in housing booms, busts, and normal times. Using data for 20 industrial countries and a continuous-time Weibull duration model, we find evidence of positive duration dependence suggesting that housing market cycles have become longer over the last decades. Then, we extend the baseline Weibull model and allow for the presence of a change-point in the duration dependence parameter.We show that positive duration dependence is present in booms and busts that last less than 26 quarters, but that does not seem to be the case for longer phases of the housing market cycle. For normal times, no evidence of change-points is fo…

Statistics and ProbabilityEconomics and EconometricsHousing booms and bustsSocial SciencesDuration dependenceBoomWeibull modelEconomicsDuration (project management)Baseline (configuration management)Weibull distributionScience & TechnologyActuarial scienceCiências Sociais::Economia e Gestãohousing booms and busts duration analysis Weibull model duration dependence change-pointsSettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaDuration analysis8. Economic growthChange pointsChange-pointsDemographic economics:Economia e Gestão [Ciências Sociais]Statistics Probability and UncertaintyDuration dependenceSocial Sciences (miscellaneous)
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